In accordance with GB7258-2017 regulations, three-axle warehouse fences, fence semi-trailers and other vehicles require the installation of idle suspension and disc brakes. And as the new crown pneumonia epidemic in January swept across the country and even the world, the entire economic environment has also begun to become less optimistic.
With policies and regulations coupled with the drastic changes in the overall economic environment, many people cannot see clearly the trend of the domestic semi-trailer market this year and now. Recently, the author interviewed Sun Fusen, chairman and general manager of Shandong Changlong Company, which has been in the industry for 30 years and was newly established last year. He has his own judgment.
▎The impact of the epidemic is not obvious. The peak sales of semi-trailers may be postponed to July
From the current production and sales situation in various regions, the current domestic semi-trailer market is not significantly affected by the epidemic. On the contrary, GB7258-2017 has stimulated the market demand for ordinary three-axle warehouse trucks to a certain extent.
Due to the large demand from local dealers, large dealers basically stocked thousands of vehicles, and the smallest dealers stocked nearly 100 vehicles. The massive stocking of dealers stimulated the production of trailer manufacturers in Mengyin. At present, every trailer factory in Mengyin area is over-production, and the demand for trailer products exceeds demand. It is initially estimated that the total stock in Mengyin area in the first half of the year is about 10,000 semi-trailers.
The market began to recover gradually in March, but the start-up was slower due to the impact of the epidemic. The market is not very prosperous. It has now become normal, but it is still slightly weaker than before. In contrast, the international market was hit hard by the epidemic, and the demand in the international market was bleak, which directly led to a sharp drop in export business.
▎The total demand for warehouse semi-trailers will decline
According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's final sales deadline for three-axle warehouse semi-trailers, the sales period will be postponed by half a year to July and August this year. It is judged that the first half of this year is the final sales golden period for three-axle ordinary warehouse semi-trailers. Demand will be overdrawn and released in advance, but after this period the demand will soon fall.
It is understood that the annual market demand for ordinary three-axle warehouse semi-trailers is between 250,000 and 300,000. This year, despite the special situation, the total market demand will not change much and will slightly decrease. It is estimated that the production and sales of Canglan semi-trailers this year will be about 200,000.
The market demand for three-axle warehouse semi-trailers equipped with disc brakes will be vacant in the second half of this year. However, due to the huge market demand, the future installation of three-axle warehouse semi-trailers with disc brakes will be in the future. Annual demand will gradually recover and rise.
▎Four possible alternative models
Under the double test of the epidemic/New Deal, the domestic trailer market stabilizes
For a long time, the three-axle warehouse semi-trailer is the most demanded vehicle in the domestic trailer category. Because this type of semi-trailer has many advantages, it is widely recognized by Chinese users. For example, the price is less than 100,000 yuan, the cargo capacity is large and the adaptability is strong. , Loading and unloading is also convenient.
But at the same time, this type of semi-trailer is also one of the most overloaded and over-limit models on the road. In order to prevent this type of vehicle from overloading and over-limiting and ensuring safe transportation, the competent authority has improved the configuration to curb overload and over-limit, so as to achieve safe transportation. purpose. But as a result, the cost of the three-axle warehouse semi-trailer increased by about 40,000 yuan, and the cost advantage was completely lost.
Which type of vehicle is the best alternative in the future? The industry is searching hard.
According to the analysis of 30 years of experience in the industry, the following models will gradually increase in demand in the next few years, or will become alternative models.
Side unloading semi-trailer
Reason for substitution: After the cost of the three-axle warehouse fence and fence semi-trailer is increased by the GB7258-2017 technology upgrade, the side unloading fence semi-trailer is the closest model, and it is convenient to load and unload.
Low flatbed reinforced semi-trailer
Reason for substitution: According to the "Technical Specification for Low Flatbed Semi-trailer" issued by the Ministry of Communications on March 4, a low-flatbed reinforced semi-trailer was added, and its bearing surface width can be expanded to 3.4m (GB1589-2016 maximum bearing surface width is 3m ), the loading quality has also increased. The maximum load-bearing mass of the three-axle of the low-flat reinforced semi-trailer is 42 tons or more, and the five-axle is 55 tons or more.
Container skeleton car
Reasons for substitution: As the current constraints on the loading of container skeletal trucks are relatively vague, the top loading of skeletal trucks can be extended into a wide variety of van type, silo type, slat type, tank type, etc., with a wide range of modifications.
Center axle flatbed freight train
Reason for substitution: According to regulations, the total length of freight trains is 20m, the loading capacity is large, and the loading and unloading is convenient. The disadvantage is that the security is poor.
For van semi-trailers, including curtain side vehicles, it is believed that the volume of such vehicles will still be slow in the next few years, because Chinese transportation habits and modes of transportation do not have a high degree of acceptance for such vehicles.