The craze has gradually faded, and we should calmly think about future market trends and countermeasures.
Affected by the continuous decline of domestic GDP and the entry of medium-to-low economic growth, domestic special-purpose vehicle companies are accelerating the pace of integration, transformation and upgrading, and the entire industry is showing a development trend of groupization, systemization, intelligent manufacturing, and green manufacturing. A huge process of change.
In 2019, the semi-trailer market will be affected by the semi-trailer equipped with disc brakes (hazardous chemicals vehicles on January 1, 2019, fences and warehouse grid semi-trailers on January 1, 2020), and emission upgrades (National III phased out, National VI implemented ahead of schedule ), the strengthening of over-limit and overload management, the introduction of environmental protection inspections, the introduction of truck safety technical conditions, the introduction of the three-year action plan for the adjustment of transportation structure, the continuous implementation of drop-and-hook transportation, the introduction of management measures for motor vehicle product access, and other policies. Domestic trailers fell by about 22%. Logistics trailers, engineering trailers, car transporters, etc. will all decline to varying degrees, but affected by the GB7258-2017 policy, there may be a short-term rebound in the second half of this year.
According to the requirements of GB7258-2017, starting from January 1, 2020, three-axle fence and barn semi-trailers should be equipped with disc brakes. At the same time, three-axle fence type and warehouse-type semi-trailers with a total mass of more than 12000kg should be equipped with air suspension.
The changes in laws and regulations will directly hit the market and bring the most direct impact. In 2018, fence-type and warehouse-type semi-trailers accounted for 30% of my country's total production of semi-trailers, and warehouse-type semi-trailers have long been the largest production models of semi-trailers in my country. According to calculations, if these two relatively low-priced models are forced to be equipped with components such as disc brakes and air suspension, the purchase cost of each vehicle will increase by about 40,000 to 50,000. Such prices no longer have a competitive advantage.
According to the market research results of vehicle owners’ intention to reserve vehicles, 20% of vehicle owners indicated that they would choose to reserve vehicles in advance due to the increase in the price of disc brakes and air suspension by 40,000 to 50,000 yuan each due to changes brought about by the GB7258-2017 policy . Some people expect that before the 2020 standard is officially implemented, users will have a round of advance car purchases, and the market will usher in a big market by then.
However, we should not put too much emphasis on this final feast, but should take a long-term view. Some experts predict that after the implementation of the new regulations, traditional fence cars and warehouse cars will gradually be transformed into vans. Affected by the GB7258-2017 policy, customer purchase costs will increase, which will lead to rapid integration with high-end vans and achieve industrial transformation and upgrading. The increase in cost will play a key role in customer purchase choices. Van semi-trailers will become the future logistics Mainstream transportation vehicles. In addition, logistics trailers will drop by about 18%, but with the management of large pallets, super large non-standard containers, and the rise of high-end logistics such as express delivery, vans that are more efficient, lighter, and more in line with national standards and regulations Transport vehicles will replace these "big road cargoes" and become the main models of my country's future transportation industry.
To this end, companies must actively prepare to respond to future market changes, continuously increase investment in technology research and development, and actively learn van models in mature markets in Europe and the United States, in order to seize the opportunity in the new semi-trailer market and usher in a harvest A good year.